When Demography Meets Democracy
(April 2005)
As many Israelis know and understand, the demographic clock is ticking down fast on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Soon, there will be more non-Jews than Jews between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River under Israeli control. As a direct result, the threat of a one-state solution will increase. A bi-national democratic state means the end of Israel as a Jewish state. To this end, the Gaza disengagement plan is designed to take 1.3 million Palestinians out of Israeli control and buy several more years of Jewish majority.
Recent events in the Middle East present yet another ticking clock - the democratic clock. With elections in Iraq, a possible "cedar revolution" in Lebanon, free and fair elections in the Palestinian Authority and potential democratic reforms in Egypt and Jordan, momentum has been created in the Middle East. Although the jury is still out on the possibility of democracy in the Middle East, the democratic clock is here to stay.
How does the democratic clock affect Israel?
There are two ways of looking at the answer. On the one hand, establishment of democratic regimes around Israel and in the Middle East is in Israel's best interests. Stable democratic states will decrease the chances of regional war, and increase the prospects of non-violent resolution of conflict. The inclusive nature of the democratic system will raise the costs to spoilers, and enhance integration and moderation.
On the other hand, however, if the democratic clock winds down before a Palestinian state is established by Israel's side, it will amplify tremendously the threat of a one state solution.
First, the demonstration effect of a democratic Arab state will sweep the world's imagination. As a result, the 'democratic' character of the one state solution will appeal to the international community and lead to increasing pressure to adopt it.
Second, if more democratic states rise in the Middle East, the strategic value of Israel as the only democracy in the Middle East will diminish. One of the major pillars of US-Israel relations, and Israeli-Western relations in general, is Israel's uniqueness as the only democracy in an autocratic neighborhood. Losing this status could have devastating effects for Israel's existence as a democratic Jewish state.
A democratic Middle East is in Israel's best interest but the Israeli-Palestinian conflict must be resolved first by establishing an independent Palestinian state living side by side with Israel.
Understanding where and when demography meets democracy, Israel must push forward and fast. Time is not on Israel's side.