Israeli Elections; Trends, Predictions and Consequeces (January 15, 2006)
Despite the reluctance on the part of many Middle East experts, it is possible to predict the outcome of the next Israeli elections. A careful analysis of voting patterns and trends, combined with certain considerations can help limit the possibilities into three scenarios: If Kadimah and Labor exceed 51 seats in the next Knesset, then Ehud Olmert will form a coalition that will include Kadimah, Labor and Shas. If Kadimah and Labor fail to exceed 51 seat, yet Kadimah and Likud exceed 51 seats, then Olmert will form a coalition with Kadimah, Likud and Shas. Lastly, if neither Kadimah and Labor nor Kadimah and Likud exceed 51 seats, then Benjamin Netanyahu will form a coalition that will include Likud, Kadimah and Shas (or a right-wing block).
I. TRENDS -
1. The "Center" gets 75-77 seats in the Knesset -
Examining Israeli voting patterns reveals surprising consistency. The center political block - defined as Labor as its left border, Likud as its right border, and all parties positioned in between - holds between 75 and 77 seats in the Knesset in recent Israeli history. In the most recent elections, for instance, Likud (united with Israel Ba'aliya), Labor (united with Am-Ehad), and Shinui received a total of 77 seats. The Knesset elected in 1996 included Labor, Likud, Israel Ba'aliya, and the Third Way party together with 77 seats. Even the Knesset voted-in in 1992 included Labor and Likud together with 76 seats in the Knesset.
Current polls confirm that this trend will continue in the up-coming elections. A Ha'aretz poll published on January 12 th , placed Kadimah, Labor, Likud and Shinui with 44, 16, 13 and 4 seats respectively - together holding 77 seats.
2. The more parties elected into the Knesset, the less seats won by the "Center" -
Further examination reveals a more nuanced trend: larger number of parties, and in particular "Center" parties, results in loss of seats for the political center block. In the 1999 elections 15 parties won seats in the Knesset, 6 of which were of the political center as defined in this research (Israel Ahat, Likud, Israeli Ba'aliya, Shinui, Am-Ehad and the Merkaz party). The more traditional range of parties in the Knesset is between 11 and 13, out of which between 2 to 4 are of the center block. In these exceptional elections, the political center held only 65 seats. This trend can be explained as the result of a more damaging campaign between the center parties lashing out at each other and competing over the same constituents.
In order to gain seats in the next Knesset a party has to win at least 2.5 percent of the total votes. This "barrier to entry" marks a change from a previous 2 percent voter requirement and will decrease the number of parties elected to the Knesset.
3. A traditional Likud-Shas axis is shifting to a Labor-Shas axis -
There is an opposite relationship between how well Likud and Shas do in elections. When Likud wins a high number of seats (30 or more), Shas shrinks (between 6 and 11). But when Likud falls in the elections - as it did in 1999 when it won only 19 seats, Shas won 17 seats. This trend can be explained by the correlation between the voters' socio-economic status and their origin (Sephardim or Ashkenazim). Traditionally, economically struggling cities are strongholds for Likud. At the same time, the lower socio-economic conditions of their residence and their Sephardic origin leads them to look to more socially oriented parties, preferably voicing Sephardic interests. Shas, as the only Sephardic party in Israel, traditionally filled both of these needs. As a result, when being frustrated with Likud, the voters in these cities tended to shift their support and vote for Shas.
With the rise of Amir Peretz in the Labor party the Likud-Shas axis has shifted into a Labor-Shas axis. Being of a Sephardic origin and carrying the flag of social economic reform, Peretz and Labor become more attractive to voters of both lower socio-economic status and Sepharadim. A Likud led by Benjamin Netanyahu, an Ashkenazi with an elitist image, reinforces this notion. The result is a migration of 'Likud-frustrated Shas voters' to Peretz and the Labor Party. Of course, this comes with a high cost to Labor, which is losing many of its traditional voters to Kadimah.
II. CONSIDERATIONS -
Before going into predictions, based on the trends identified above there are several considerations to take into account;
1. Accuracy of Current polls - The current opinion polls in Israel were conducted after several weeks of non-stop media coverage of Sharon's condition and Kadimah's leader Ehud Olmert. In conjunction, Kadimah's political rivals gave Kadimah a criticism-free grace period due to Sharon's medical condition. Furthermore, the Israeli public might still be in a state of denial regarding Sharon's return to power, and loyalties to him and his way are still as high as they can be due to the time proximity of Sharon's dramatic medical decline. The public's unprecedented support to Kadimah is yet to face a rigorous campaign aimed at Olmert from all other contestants of the coming elections.
2. Peretz's affect on Shas is at its highest - As mentioned before, Peretz's leadership of the Labor party attracts many of Shas's non-orthodox voters to Labor. While this is showing in current polls, with Shas winning only 10 seats, Peretz's affect is at its highest as Shas's counter-campaign has yet to begin.
3. Shinui's disappearance ? - With its decline in power, internal leadership battles and the increase in the Knesset's "barrier to entry" mentioned earlier, current polls put Shinui on the margin of disappearing from the next Knesset. Shinui's disappearance will bring the number of center parties to 3, and is most likely to benefit the remaining center parties - Kadimah in particularly.
4. From a bi-polar to a tri-polar center - Unlike previous center parties, Kadimah appears to be holding a significant, if not the majority of seats in the center block. Previous centrist parties, such as Merkaz, the Third Way, and even Shinui in the last elections, held smaller number of seats and played a minor part to Likud and Labor's central role. This new balance of power creates a new reality of coalition options.
In a bi-polar center system all was dependant on the overall power of the left block vs. the right block. An elected Prime Minister in Israel had two main options: form a coalition with the more extreme of its political-wing, or go for a national unity. A tri-polar center gives any winning Prime Minister the option to get close to a stable coalition by only joining with one of the other center parties.
III. CONCLUSIONS AND PREDICTIONS -
The analysis above suggests many interesting insights into the likely results of the upcoming Israeli elections:
1. The next Israeli government will most likely be made of 2 center parties and one 'outside' party - Although it is impossible to predict the exact number of seats to be divided between the three center parties, their total sum of between 75 and 77 seats based upon previous election analysis suggests that two center parties forming a coalition will need only one smaller partner to form a stable government. This situation conditions Shas as the ultimate coalition partner. Shas's minimum of 10 seats can turn any two center-party coalition into a stable government.
Based on this conclusion, here are the main options for Israel's next government:
2. If Kadimah + Labor > 51 seats - In the case that Kadimah and Labor together win more than 51 seats, then Ehud Olmert will form a coalition with Labor and Shas. This will give Olmert at least 61 seats and the definite support from outside of smaller parties such as Meretz-Yahad and the Arab block. This is very important for Olmert in case Shas decides to vote against some of his security-related moves in the West Bank (similar to Sharon's experience in disengaging from Gaza). This government can pass and implement far-reaching actions with regards to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, such as a maximalist disengagement (unilateral or coordinated) from the West Bank and East Jerusalem. On the social-economic front, Olmert will have to concede to many of Labor and Shas's demands
3. If Kadimah + Labor < 51, and Kadimah + Likud >51 seats - In the case Kadimah and Labor together do not reach over 51 seats, and Kadimah and Likud do, then Olmert will have to form a coalition with Likud and Shas. This government will have to take much more limited actions with regards to the Palestinians, such as a minimalist disengagement in the West Bank, and will pursue negotiated solutions to the conflict. On the social-economic front, Netanyahu and Olmert, who see eye-to-eye, will be able to safely advance their agendas.
4. If both Kadimah + Labor and Kadimah + Likud < 51 seat - It is unlikely, yet possible, that the upcoming campaign will decrease Kadimah's position and advance both Likud and Labor up to an almost equal division of about 24 seats each. In this case we will see Benjamin Netanyahu as Israel's next Prime Minister forming a coalition with Kadimah, Shas, and maybe parties of the right-wing block. The reason Bibi will be the one forming the coalition is because of the support he will possess from the right-wing parties, which can block any Kadimah-Labor coalition. This government will be a 'more of the same' government. In other words this government will be very similar in its actions to the previous Bibi government, and probably as unstable.
5. Shinui ? - An ironic outcome of this analysis is that Shinui, in case it survives and makes it into the next Knesset is just going to weaken any coalition. A smaller Shinui prevents it from becoming a valid coalition partner as it negates Shas from the coalition. The seats that Shinui might win in the Knesset take power and stability from a center-based coalition and therefore damage Shinui's own agenda.